Future of Conflict

The Future of Conflict (FoC) Program focuses on three issues – climate change, digital technologies, and the global economy – that are already redefining the conflict landscape. Climate change is increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. Technological change is transforming social order, from the use of social media to foment unrest to new weapons for waging war and suppressing dissent. The economic fragility of states threatens their pathways to peace, the extraction of oil, gas and minerals have contributed to new security challenges, and the increased use of economic sanctions has too often exacerbated the humanitarian impacts of conflict.

Robert Blecher

Program Director, Future of Conflict

Ulrich Eberle

Project Director, Climate, Environment and Conflict

Alessandro Accorsi

Senior Analyst, Social Media and Conflict

Rafael Ch Duran

Postdoctoral Fellow on the Future of Conflict

Andrew Ciacci

Researcher, Future of Conflict

Kevin Mazur

Consultant, Future of Conflict


Why a Small Change at Twitter Could Have Big Consequences for Deadly Conflict

As Twitter limits access to a tool to analyse conversations on the platform, researchers will be deprived of information that sheds light on political hate speech and incitement to violence. That will have real-world implications for tracking election meddling, disinformation campaigns and human rights abuses.

Seven Priorities for the G7 in 2023

On 19 May, when G7 leaders gather in Japan, Russia’s war in Ukraine will be high on their agenda, as will China’s posture in the Asia Pacific. But several other pressing matters need their attention as well. 


Commentary / Africa

What Facebook Does (and Doesn’t) Have to Do with Ethiopia’s Ethnic Violence

A victim’s relative is among those accusing Meta in a Kenyan court of failing to adequately police incendiary speech on Facebook during Ethiopia’s civil war. Much greater effort from the company is warranted. But Meta’s task is hardly straightforward.

Briefing / Africa

Absorbing Climate Shocks and Easing Conflict in Kenya’s Rift Valley

A series of failed rainy seasons in northern Kenya has sharpened competition among herders, farmers and conservancy owners for land and water, often resulting in bloodshed. Authorities should redouble aid to hard-hit areas and, with donor support, look for ways to encourage sharing of resources.

Special Coverage / Global

COP: A Special Series

In the run-up to COP27, Crisis Group experts contribute their views on how climate change shapes the conflicts and crises they work on.

Commentary / Global

Responding to Global Economic Vulnerability

Overlapping crises have added to the economic burdens of many countries, particularly those already in debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group lays out steps the EU and its member states can take to reduce vulnerability and risks of unrest.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.